Economic updates
Our in-depth, independent reports cover the macroeconomic environment, the Saudi government’s annual budget, and Saudi Arabia’s monetary and financial developments, labor market, and inflation.
Quarterly oil market update- Q2 2017: (OPEC Discipline Waning?)
Macroeconomic reportOil prices declined by 8 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2017, the first such decline since Q1 2016. Higher OPEC oil production, mainly from Nigeria and Libya, plus continued rises in US oil production, were the primary triggers for the slump in prices. Going forward, doubts remain over OPECs ability to, firstly, maintain discipline amongst members and, secondly, prevent sizable increases in supply from Libya and Nigeria. In addition, as the recovery in US oil production continues, with US shale oil supply expected to achieve an all-time record high in the next few months, the risk to oil prices remains firmly skewed to the downside.
Shale Oil 2.0
Oil market reportThe recently observed uptick in oil prices has given many US shale oil producers the opportunity to expand production. Latest forecasts from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) see US oil production rising by 10 percent year-on-year in 2017, and 3.3 percent in 2018. Nevertheless, shale oil exploration and production (E&P) companies face a number of potential ‘bumps in road that could hinder their progress and recovery in the near-to-medium term. Besides higher borrowing costs, shale oil producers also face the possibility of constrained capacity leading to inflated operating costs. One area where costs are likely to rise is related to oilfield services, which includes the cost of rigs, equipment and personnel.
