Economic updates
Our in-depth, independent reports cover the macroeconomic environment, the Saudi government’s annual budget, and Saudi Arabia’s monetary and financial developments, labor market, and inflation.
Oil prices and the Saudi Stock Exchange (TADAWUL)
Macroeconomic reportWith Saudi Arabia being a predominantly oil-based economy, major changes in the price of oil are likely to be followed by sentimental as well as real changes in the stock market. When a major downward movement in international oil prices occurs, this will usually be accompanied by an immediate/short-term impact on the stock market, as a result of change in sentiment. While sentimental changes often impact the stock market immediately, real changes will take effect over the longer term. If oil prices remain low, this ultimately affects economic policy framework, private sector activity and corporate profitability. The attached report examines the nature of the Tadawul All Share Indexs (TASIs) relationship with global oil prices.
Quarterly GDP update: (Oil sector pushes up overall growth in Q1-15)
Oil market reportLatest data released by CDSI show a Saudi economic growth of 2.4 percent year-on-year, 0.8 percentage point higher than in the fourth quarter of last year. Contribution to growth has remained unchanged with the non-oil sector becoming once again the main growth driver, while oil sector growth and contribution have turned positive for the first time since Q2-14. We assume that annual economic growth will trend higher for the remainder of the year, owing to an increase in oil output, while the non-oil private sector remains robust.
The Outlook for Unconventional Oil Gas Production Full report
Oil market reportThe Outlook for Unconventional Oil Gas Production Full report
Quarterly GDP update: (Manufactuing and oil sectors lead the growth in Q1)
Latest economic growth data released by CDSI show a real economic growth of 4.7 percent, nearly 1 percentage point higher than in the same period of 2013. Growth was unchanged compared with the previous quarter and was more dependent on the oil sector as structural changes in the labor market continued to affect the non-oil economy. As a result, a number of leading non-oil sectors registered a slowdown in growth, yet their contribution to the overall economic growth remained robust.