Oil Market Update – Q2 2021: (OPEC+: a temporary divergence)
Macroeconomic ReportAccording to OPEC data, Q2 2021 oil demand rose by 3 percent quarter-on-quarter and a sizable 14 percent year-on-year. The outlook for the remainder of the year is consistent with previous estimates, with oil demand expected to keep growing quarter-on-quarter in Q3 and Q4 2021. Overall, only transportation fuels (jet fuel and gasoline) are showing sizable differences in demand when compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Oil Market Update – Q1 2021: (Small bump on the road to recovery)
Macroeconomic ReportThe recovery in global oil demand reversed course during the first quarter of 2021, with OPECs monthly oil market report showing declines of 780 thousand barrels per day (tbpd) or -0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q1. Looking ahead, according to OPEC forecasts, oil demand will resume rising on a quarterly basis during the rest of the year, but still end up 3.5 percent lower than pre-Covid-19 levels by the end of 2021.
Quarterly oil market update- Q2 2017: (OPEC Discipline Waning?)
Macroeconomic ReportOil prices declined by 8 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2017, the first such decline since Q1 2016. Higher OPEC oil production, mainly from Nigeria and Libya, plus continued rises in US oil production, were the primary triggers for the slump in prices. Going forward, doubts remain over OPECs ability to, firstly, maintain discipline amongst members and, secondly, prevent sizable increases in supply from Libya and Nigeria. In addition, as the recovery in US oil production continues, with US shale oil supply expected to achieve an all-time record high in the next few months, the risk to oil prices remains firmly skewed to the downside.
