Saudi Economy: still shining
Macroeconomic ReportDespite the prevailing global economic gloom, the Saudi economy continues on a solid growth path. We have revised some of our 2012 forecasts to take account of a recent flow of data that has generally been stronger than we had expected. Higher oil production despite a difficult global environment will keep the hydrocarbon sector growth elevated at 6.1 percent this year. As a result, we have also raised our projections for both the budget and current account surpluses. We maintain our baseline scenario which is centered on government spending leading non-oil growth to 5.7 percent this year. All in all, we now expect the Saudi economy to expand by 5.8 percent in 2012.
Rapid growth in the Kingdom’s foreign assets – April 2012
Macroeconomic ReportFor the first time, data on the total foreign assets and liabilities of all components of the Saudi economy (government, companies and individuals) has been published. It shows that their combined foreign assets grew rapidly in recent years to stand at $707 billion at the end of 2010. This is very high and represents a core source of strength for the economy.
The Saudi Economy in 2012
Macroeconomic ReportWe expect another year of reasonable performance in 2012. Non-oil growth will be strong and inflation should ease. Lower oil production will cause total real economic growth to slow, and combined with lower prices, will reduce the budget and current account surpluses.
Economic projections for 2011 revised up
Macroeconomic ReportWe have revised some of our 2011 forecasts to take account of a recent flow of data that has generally been stronger than we had anticipated. Although risks to our outlook are on the downside for the remainder of the year given the uncertainty over events in the Eurozone, 2011 will be a year of strong performance for the Saudi economy.
Strong economic growth in the first half
Macroeconomic ReportNew data show that economic growth in the first half of the year was strong, at 26.1 percent year-on-year in nominal terms, with oil by far the fastest growing sector, at 39.5 percent. Non-oil growth was 12.9 percent, with the non-oil private sector growing by 8.4 percent.
