Quarterly Oil Market Update: (Volatility Returns to Oil Markets)
Oil Market ReportOil prices rose 10 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2017, but volatility levels were up too, especially towards the end of the quarter. Although both OPEC and non-OPEC cuts are contributing to a reduction in global oil balances, global commercial oil inventories nevertheless remain high. Demand is expected to pick up in H2 2017.
Quarterly Oil Market Update: All eyes on OPEC and the US
Oil Market ReportCurrently, Brent oil is trading at around $55 per barrel, with little deviation from this level in the last two months. This stability in prices is mainly due to coordinated action by OPEC and some non-OPEC members, with January crude oil production data showing OPECs oil output was down, month-on-month, by 900 thousand barrels per day. Despite the relatively stable start to the year, oil price volatility is likely to re-emerge during 2017 as global oil markets face up to a rising risk of OPEC noncompliance to production cuts, upward revisions in US oil production, and policy initiatives from the new US administration.
Quarterly oil Market Update (Q3 2016): Are Oil Markets better off with OPEC cuts?
Oil Market ReportOPECs decision to announce, but not to implement, a cut in production immediately sent Brent oil prices up 6 percent at the end of September. Prices were further supported by statements from Russia expressing its readiness to cooperate in order to limit oil output. OPEC plans on meeting in November, when the extent of OPEC cuts and individual country quotas are to be decided. Whilst the deal to cut remains fragile and fraught with numerous obstacles, as a result of the financial difficulty faced by a number of OPEC member economies, most notably Venezuela, Nigeria and Libya, there will be immense pressure to ensure some sort of deal is reached in November. In this context, we see the most likely outcome being an agreement to cut production, but only by a small amount, more akin to a production freeze rather than an outright cut. Such an agreement would underline OPECs intention to limit further rises in production and help stabilize oil prices at current levels (around $50 per barrel).
